014 
fxus62 kilm 210830 
afdilm 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington NC 
330 am EST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
a strong upper level disturbance will bring the chance for 
flurries today...mainly over southeastern North Carolina. Arctic 
high pressure will build in over the weekend. A slight moderation 
on Monday will precede another strong cold front Monday night. 
Chilly...but not Arctic...high pressure will build in for the rest 
of next week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
as of 3 am Friday...cold Canadian high pressure will build into the 
area today and tonight. An upper level disturbance will bring 
clouds and the chance of flurries or light rain showers to the area 
through about noon or so. High temperatures today will reach the middle 
to upper 40s. Lows tonight will fall to the 20 to 25 degree range. 


&& 


Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/... 
as of 3am Friday... 
Arctic high firmly entrenched across most of the southeast will bring 
a Cold Saturday with highs only in the middle 40s. Some uncertainty as 
to how Cold Saturday night gets. A clipper-ish shortwave brings 
enough cloud cover to make for an ideal radiational cooling setup. 
Given the dry nature of the Arctic air have forecasted fewer clouds 
than guidance would suggest and have kept with cooler Eta model 
MOS/continuity...middle 20s everywhere. Modification of the airmass by 
the weak late November sun will bring highs in the middle 50s...still 
10 degree below climatology. 


Record lows for: November 22nd November 23rd 


Ilm: 24 degree set in 1937 23 degree set in 1981 
cre: 24 degree set in 1951 24 degree set in 1949 
flo: 20 degree set in 2000 24 degree set in 1976 


&& 


Long term /Monday through Thursday/... 
as of 3am Friday... 
highs in the middle 60s on Monday will be the closest to climatology weve 
seen in a while as high pressure moves offshore. This allows for the 
advection of warmer air as well as moisture. Late day low level jet 
starting to look impressive on forecasts and would not be surprised to 
see probability of precipitation raised in future forecast iterations. Rest of the long term 
will be dry and cold as large storm system cuts off and remains 
quasi stationary in the northeast. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/... 
a dry cold front is pushing through the eastern Carolinas currently. 
Northerly surface winds behind this front will increase rapidly due 
to vertical mixing after sunrise. Higher velocity wind (north near 
25 knots at only 600 feet agl) will create wind shear conditions in the 
hours before sunrise. Increasingly cold middle-level temperatures 
12-15z today will steepen lapse rates sufficiently to produce 3000 
to 5000 feet deep cumulus clouds. A few snow flurries are possible 
near the lbt and ilm airports later this morning...but no 
significant visibility restrictions are expected. Gusty north to 
northwest surface winds will settle down this evening as skies clear. 


Outlook through Tuesday...VFR and remaining unseasonably cold. 


&& 


Marine... 
near term /through tonight/... 
as of 3 am Friday...Small Craft Advisory flags will continue to fly for north to northwest winds 
expected to increase above 25 knots today before diminishing slightly 
to 20 to 25 knots tonight. Seas will build as high as 6 feet by late 
afternoon or early evening. 


Short term/Saturday through Sunday night/... 
as of 3am Friday...tail end of the cold surge Marks the start of the 
period and possibly the end time of Small Craft Advisory conditions. 
Arctic high will build in rather quickly though making for 
improving...albeit very cold conditions on the water as winds and 
seas subside. Winds continue to lighten as the high builds in on 
Sunday and there may be a little uncertainty regarding the exact 
wind direction. 




Long term/Monday through Tuesday/... 
as of 3am Friday... 
late day passage of a cold front accompanied by strong dynamics 
aloft Monday. Guidance looks a little underdone on winds even given 
cooler SSTs. Small Craft Advisory may be needed Monday 
night/Tuesday. 


&& 


Ilm watches/warnings/advisories... 
SC...none. 
NC...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 am EST 
Saturday for amz250-252-254-256. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...mbb 
near term...ran 
short term...mbb 
long term...mbb 
aviation...tra