876 
fxus63 kgld 210427 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
927 PM MST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Discussion...updated grids and zones to lower min temperatures 
tonight. Dewpoints are currently in the teens across the forecast 
area. Clouds should continue to decrease allowing temperatures to 
fall into the upper teens before winds shift to the south. 
Otherwise no other changes. 


Fs 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 335 PM MST Thursday Nov 20 2008/ 
forecast concerns are the temperatures in the short term with an 
eye of concern looking foreward to next Thursday...Thanksgiving 
day...following a cold front and upper low that move across the 
tri-state region. 


The upper flow pattern is in a progressive Mode with four discrete 
short wave troughs moving east of The Rockies and across the middle 
section of the country during the next seven days. That will keep 
the upper ridge generally in place over the western U.S. With a 
Lee surface trough generally in place near the eastern Colorado 
border. The Lee trough will vacillate back and forth across the 
region as a couple of weak cold fronts will also move across the 
region in response to the upper short waves on Sunday morning and 
Tuesday morning. Sensible weather across the tri-state region 
through that time...as a result...will remain benign with dry 
conditions and temperatures slightly warmer than average for this 
time of year. 


On Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning...a stronger upper 
trough will deepen in the Lee of The Rockies with a low center 
over the northern plains moving through the Great Lakes region on 
Friday. A cold front will move through the region Wednesday night 
with temperatures a few degrees cooler expected on Thanksgiving 
day. With the progressive nature of the pattern...there will not 
be enough time between waves to set up a good near surface 
moisture return pattern across the southern and Central High 
plains...so the tri-state region is expected to remain dry on 
Thursday with some gusty winds during the day behind the front. 


&& 


Aviation...for the 06z tafs...band of stratus has formed across 
eastern Colorado this evening. MVFR conditions were briefly reported 
at kitr. RUC indicates that MVFR ceilings will remain west of 
kgld...but will indicate a few hours of scattered-broken clouds around 2500 
feet based on satellite trends. Otherwise...conditions will be VFR 
through the period at both kgld and kmck. Surface winds will become 
south at 15-25 knots after 14z. 


&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
NE...none. 
Colorado...none. 
&& 


$$