210 
fxus61 kgyx 071831 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
131 PM EST Wednesday Jan 7 2009 


Synopsis... 
developing low pressure off the Jersey coast will move northeastward 
into the Canadian Maritimes as it intensifies tonight. A strong 
westerly flow will develop late tonight behind the storm and the 
flow will veer northwest Thursday morning. This strong northwesterly 
flow will continue through Friday evening before relaxing Friday night. 
A ridge of high pressure will quickly cross the region later Friday 
night. A quick moving area of low pressure will move south of New 
England later Saturday followed by a ridge of high pressure on Sunday. 
Another storm system will approach the region Monday and cross the 
region on Tuesday. 
&& 


Near term /until 7 PM this evening/... 
latest batch of winter weather will continue tonight. 12z model solutions 
came in with a bit less quantitative precipitation forecast than previous solutions...keeping the 
bulk of the quantitative precipitation forecast offshore. Still believe enough snow will fall through 
first period to keep current warnings in effect as is. Elsewhere... 
will also elect to keep current advisories as is. 18z kpwm 
sounding showed quite a bit of a cold air surface based layer...aprox 
4500 feet as opposed to aprox 5000 feet this morning with a 1500 feet 
warm layer above it. Hence more sleet then freezing rain as warm air 
moved in aloft. 
&& 


Short term /7 PM this evening through 6 PM Thursday/... 
storm winds down tonight...though residual 
moisture will allow for more clouds then sun on Thursday with a chance 
of snow showers over northern/mountain sections. Strong northwesterly 
winds Thursday afternoon will be held at Bay courtesy of cloud 
cover. Used blend of mav/met/current forecast for temperatures/winds 
and blend of mav/current forecast for probability of precipitation. 
&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/... 
active pattern will develop in the long term. Plenty of wintry 
weather on the way with snow and bouts of well below normal 
temperatures over the next 10 days or so. 


Upper level ridge remains in place along the West Coast through 
next week. If anything...it intensifies with time...allowing shots 
of energy to dive south and east over the eastern Continental U.S.. 


System #1...upper level support from current winter weather exits 
the region allowing for strong and cold northwest flow to develop 
thruday night and Friday. 


System #2...approaches New England Saturday. Quite a bit of timing 
differences between the models...so exact track and quantitative precipitation forecast will be 
determined by northern proximity of low pressure which passes 
underneath Maine/New Hampshire. 


System #3...slowly develops over the Great Lakes Monday and 
Tuesday of next week. Eventually...there is a secondary response 
along the coastline with the development of an offshore low. 
Plenty of energy with the anomolous system...but with everything 
developing overhead...sensible weather and impact may be minimal. 


System #4...very strong upper level jet dives south out of Canada 
by next week. Very far off timewise...but if this pattern 
holds...very cold...Arctic air would be draining south from Canada. 
&& 


Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/... 
short term...IFR conditions improving to MVFR later tonight...then 
improving to VFR except for any local MVFR over northern/mountain 
sections in any snow showers on Thursday. 


Long term...after tonight...ptype will be snow from here on out. 
Expect periods of IFR conditions as described timewise with 
systems 1-4 above. 
&& 


Marine... 
short term...Small Craft Advisory conditions tonight increasing to glw on Thursday. 


Long term...winds slowly subside by Thursday evening. Expect gales 
to be replaced with scas at that time. Strong wind gradients to 
hit the waters by Saturday night and again around Wednesday of 
next week. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 am EST Thursday for mez018>028. 
Winter Storm Warning until 5 am EST Thursday for mez007>009- 
012>014. 
New Hampshire...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 am EST Thursday for nhz006- 
008>010-013-014. 
Winter Storm Warning until 5 am EST Thursday for nhz001>004. 
Winter Storm Warning until 1 am EST Thursday for nhz005-007. 
Marine...Gale Warning from 7 am to 7 PM EST Thursday for anz150>154. 
&& 
$$