895 
fxus61 kgyx 210837 cca 
afdgyx 


Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Gray ME 
335 am EST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will develop well south of Cape Cod today and intensify 
rapidly as it moves east of Nova Scotia early Saturday. This will 
usher in some more very cold air for the weekend on strong 
northwesterly winds. High pressure will move south of New England 
Sunday and a warm front will move try to bring some slightly 
milder air in Sunday night and Monday. Monday afternoon...a cold 
front will approach the region as low pressure develops south of 
New England and could remain nearly stationary into Thursday. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
the short wave that helped bring the clouds to the mountains 
overnight will lift to the north today and thin out the clouds 
throughout for a while today. It will remain cold as highs again 
only get to the 20s...with southern and coastal areas nudging to 
around freezing. Models all pretty close on highs so used a blend. 


&& 


Short term /tonight/... 
models all pretty uniform on their handling of the coastal 
low...keeping it well to our east. North to northwest winds will 
increase later tonight as it intensifies on its way to eastern 
Nova Scotia. Clouds will increase between that system and the 
developing upper trough to our west. Chance of snow showers for the 
mountains and well off shore. Lows drop back to the teens to lower 
20s. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/... 
low pressure over Nova Scotia on Saturday will move north through 
the Maritimes. Strong northwest gradient will make for a cold and 
windy day with upslope snow showers in the mountains. The 
remainder of the region will see mostly cloudy skies. 


Low pressure will continue to pull away Saturday night as high 
pressure builds south of New England. Expect winds to diminish 
somewhat overnight. Looking for snow showers to continue in 
northern sections but will begin to taper off by Sunday morning. 


Weak ridge of high pressure will crest over the region on Sunday 
as a warm front approaches the area from the west. Expect 
increasing clouds in northern and western zones in the afternoon 
but it appears any precipitation will hold off until Sunday night. 


Warm front gradually pushes into the region Sunday night bringing 
a slight chance of snow showers to northern zones. Generally 
minimal forcing with this feature...most of which passes north and 
west of the forecast area. 


Low pressure moves eastward out of the Great Lakes on Monday. 
Precipitation associated with this system will remain west of the 
forecast area during the day with most of the region seeing 
variable clouds. 


Low pressure forecast to redevelop just south of Long Island 
Monday night and move into southern New England by Tuesday 
morning. At this point looking like a mixed bag of precipitation for 
the area going over to rain in southern locations. Expect some 
timing and track changes in upcoming runs so have gone with rain 
or snow for northern and central portions of Maine and New 
Hampshire for now. 


Associated upper low forecast to close off and stall over the 
northeast on Tuesday with the surface low being drawn back to the 
west into eastern New York. This will keep the forecast area on 
the warmer side of the system with a continuing chance of rain or 
snow showers. 


This system basically forecast to park over the northeast through 
Thursday with the surface low gradually weakening over time. 
This will keep rain or snow showers in the forecast for Wednesday 
through Thursday although expect precipitation amounts to be on 
the light side. 


&& 


Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/... 
short term...VFR conditions...lowering to MVFR in the mountains tonight. 


Long term...generally VFR Saturday through Sunday with some MVFR 
ceilings in the mountains. VFR conditions on Monday drop to 
MVFR/IFR Monday night and Tuesday. 


&& 


Marine /08z Friday through Tuesday/... 
short term...winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria today but have 
been put up for tonight as gradient from offshore storm increases. 


Long term...minimal gales possible on Saturday. Small Craft Advisory level winds 
possible Monday night into Tuesday. 


&& 


Gyx watches/warnings/advisories... 
ME...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 am EST Sunday 
for anz150>154. 


&& 


$$