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Area forecast discussion...update 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
920 PM MST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Update...quick zone forecast product update to adjust tonight/S cloud 
cover...especially over western areas where high clouds 
dominating...and low clouds have crept into zone 2. May be some low 
clouds hanging on in the abq metropolitan as well later tonight...if latest 
NAM guidance is right. 


&& 


Previous discussion 250 PM MST Thursday Nov 20 2008... 
back door front continues to push westward across the state based 
on latest surface analysis. Windy Gap winds will also continue to 
affect the abq area as a result. Especially with the near 20 degree 
thermal gradient between abq and cqc. Look for these gap winds to 
die down during the late evening hours as the thermal gradient 
normalizes. Due to the cool airmass...figure that the low clouds 
will stick around across a good portion of the eastern plains 
overnight. Some weak side Lee troughing will quickly mix the low 
clouds out Friday morning. The main area for low clouds will be 
found along a line from Moriarty to Raton. Also expecting some low 
cloud development based on boundary layer relative humidity model forecasts across 
northern New Mexico. Met guidance suggesting that saf could be 
affected. Decided to not include patchy fog wording in forecast 
grids but evening shift will need to look at that more closely. 
Probably more like 1 to 3 sm visible with very localized 1/4 to 1/2 
sm. 


Didnt make many changes to middle term forecast. Just a few tweaks 
here and there with the temperatures and cloud cover. Forecast 
models rather consistent with short wave ridging over the state 
through at least Saturday. This would spell a warm up. Does appear 
that some cirrus will push over the state from the Pacific but not 
sure how thick it will be and how much it will affect surface 
temperatures on Saturday. Still looking at a short wave to track 
across the inter mountain rocky region on Sunday. Attached to this 
upper wave will be a back door cold front which is still expected 
to provide some minor affects Sunday night into Monday. This wave 
and frontal passage is expected to be of the dry variety and less 
robust than the current frontal passage. 


Long range models suggest that the upper ridge will build back 
over the state early next week although there are now some major 
discrepancies between the Euro and GFS models for the Thursday/Friday 
system. The 12z Euro continues with a possible system passage Thursday 
and Friday with reinforcing cold air energy over the weekend. The 12z 
GFS on the other hand has trended back to the persistent flow type 
we have been experiencing the past month or so. This entails a 
robust but dry cold frontal passage Thursday and Friday. Will not make 
any changes based on one model run but will have to see how the 
models progress over the next few days. As it stands right 
now...have precipitation chances for Thanksgiving and Friday. 


50 


&& 


Aviation... 
IFR to occasionally MVFR conditions due to low ceilings and even a few 
fog patches to affect airports much of the night across an area 
roughly bounded by the Manzano Mountains to the sangre Delaware cristos on 
the west and Corona to Logan on the east. There will even be some 
local mountain obscurations on the east slopes of the jemez and 
southern San Juan Mountains and more isolated obscurations vicinity 
of Mount Taylor and a few of the higher peaks in vicinity and east 
of the Continental Divide. Other than these areas VFR conditions 
will dominate. All of the obscurations should be gone later in the 
day Friday. Locally strong winds to continue into tonight through 
passes and canyons of the central Montana chain and into Rio Grande 
Valley at speeds of 18 to 30 kts and gusts between 30 and 40 kts. 
These winds will subside after midnight with much lower speeds 
Friday. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 10z. 43 


&& 


Fire weather... 
weather forecast models continue to indicate dry weather through at 
least the next 6 days. Strong winds through passes and canyons of 
central Montana chain into Rio Grande Valley to diminish between midnight 
and about middle morning Friday. Humidity readings will be high most of east 
nm tonight and in pockets farther west to The Divide. Much lower relative humidity Friday 
afternoon across most of east. Thereafter a weak upper level high pressure 
ridge to move over nm during the weekend and lead to significant 
warming trend. Then a weaker cold front may bring slight cooling and 
slightly higher humidity readings Sunday night and Monday in the 
east. A more significant storm system could impact New Mexico later 
next week and into the Thanksgiving Holiday period. 


Light to moderate transport wind speeds will continue over the next 
few days. This will translate to poor to fair ventilation rates 
across a large portion of the forecast through the weekend and into 
early next week. The northeast will see good rates on Friday as 
moderate south winds develop. Ventilation rates will likely only be 
poor to fair though over the weekend and early next week with light 
flow expected aloft. 


43 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 29 54 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 18 59 17 60 / 0 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 18 58 17 61 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 24 62 27 68 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 11 50 12 53 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Alamos...................... 17 54 22 58 / 0 0 0 0 
Red River....................... 12 45 12 49 / 5 0 0 0 
Taos............................ 16 51 13 56 / 5 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 16 50 24 58 / 5 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 22 51 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 
Espanola........................ 25 56 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 30 54 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 26 56 31 61 / 5 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 28 55 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 29 55 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 27 56 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 22 54 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 24 53 25 61 / 5 5 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 25 51 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 21 48 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 
Raton........................... 17 54 19 62 / 5 5 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 17 53 27 62 / 5 5 0 0 
Roy............................. 21 52 30 58 / 5 5 0 0 
Clayton......................... 22 52 32 60 / 5 5 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 24 56 32 67 / 5 5 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 23 54 29 63 / 5 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 24 51 27 67 / 0 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 23 51 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 22 52 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 26 50 27 68 / 5 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


50/43 

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