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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albuquerque nm 
311 am MST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Discussion... 
short term (today-sunday)...yesterday's back door cold front has 
pushed into Arizona early this morning where east winds were 
observed at both tus and phx. Across the abq County Warning Area...surface winds 
will veer from the south and southwest today as Lee side surface 
troughing develops along the Front Range of The Rockies from 
northeast New Mexico into Montana. With a dry airmass in 
place...after low/middle level cloud burn off today...clear skies 
will prevail through this period...and temperatures will rebound to 
above climate normals from today through Sunday as a zonal upper air 
pattern persists through late Sunday when an upper level ridge 
begins to develop extending from the SW US through western 
Canada...ahead of a pattern changing long wave trough. 


Long term (sunday night-thursday)...both GFS and European model (ecmwf) models 
indicate a 500 mb high pressure ridge to move through New Mexico 
from Sunday night through early Wednesday. Thereafter...a major 
change to the weather pattern across western US and the southwest is 
indicated as a dynamic high amplitude 500 mb long wave trough 
extends south along the West Coast through southern Baja California 
California. The European model (ecmwf) forecasts this long wave trough to dig south 
along the West Coast and develop an upper low centered over northern 
Baja California California on Thanksgiving day. The GFS...differs in detail 
and is more progressive than the European model (ecmwf)...forecasts an upper low over 
northern Arizona on Thanksgiving day. The European model (ecmwf) is preferred over 
the GFS...as NCEP indicates more robust solutions emerging from the 
ensemble. In any case...our confidence is increasing that a period 
of unsettled weather...colder temperatures and precipitation...will 
arrive in the southwest US and New Mexico beginning Wednesday and 
extending through Thanksgiving day (thursday). 01/spb 


&& 


Aviation... 
MVFR conditions due to low ceilings and a few fog patches to affect 
airports through 16z across the Central Mountain chain and northeast 
New Mexico. There will be some local mountain obscurations on the 
east slopes of the jemez and southern San Juan Mountains as well. 
Other than these areas VFR conditions will dominate over the next 
24 hours. Gusty south winds around 35 kts will develop over the 
northeast today. 


Next aviation discussion scheduled for 22z. 40/chj 


&& 


Fire weather... 
weather forecast models continue to indicate dry weather through 
early next week. Much lower relative humidity this afternoon across most of the 
east with gusty winds in the northeast. Thereafter a weak upper 
level high pressure ridge to move over nm during the weekend leading 
to a significant warming trend. Then a weak cold front may bring 
slight cooling and slightly higher humidity readings Sunday night 
and Monday in the east. One or two more significant storm systems 
could impact New Mexico during the Thanksgiving Holiday period. 


Light to moderate transport wind speeds will continue over the next 
few days. This will translate to poor to fair ventilation rates 
across a large portion of the forecast area through the weekend and 
into early next week. The northeast will see good rates today as 
moderate south winds develop. More widespread good rates are also 
possible Sunday with some increase in middle level flow. 40/chj 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Farmington...................... 54 26 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 
Gallup.......................... 59 17 60 16 / 0 0 0 0 
Grants.......................... 58 17 61 21 / 0 0 0 0 
Glenwood........................ 62 27 68 26 / 0 0 0 0 
Chama........................... 50 12 53 14 / 0 0 0 0 
Los Alamos...................... 54 22 58 22 / 0 0 0 0 
Red River....................... 45 12 49 14 / 0 0 0 0 
Taos............................ 51 13 56 17 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe........................ 50 24 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Santa Fe Airport................ 51 26 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Espanola........................ 56 26 62 27 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque heights............. 54 32 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque valley.............. 56 31 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque foothills........... 55 31 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 55 32 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 
Socorro......................... 56 29 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 28 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 
Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 25 61 28 / 5 0 0 0 
Carrizozo....................... 51 31 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 
Ruidoso......................... 48 36 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 
Raton........................... 54 19 62 22 / 5 0 0 0 
Las Vegas....................... 53 27 62 30 / 5 0 0 0 
Roy............................. 52 30 58 34 / 5 0 0 0 
Clayton......................... 52 32 60 37 / 5 0 0 0 
Santa Rosa...................... 56 32 67 38 / 5 0 0 0 
Tucumcari....................... 54 29 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 
Fort Sumner..................... 51 27 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 
Clovis.......................... 51 30 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 
Portales........................ 52 28 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 
Roswell......................... 50 27 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Abq watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


&& 


$$ 


01/40