723 
fxus64 kepz 211057 
afdepz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service El Paso Texas/Santa Teresa nm 
355 am MST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Synopsis... 
a cool fall day is in store today across the Borderland as a result 
of a cold front which pushed in yesterday. High temperatures will 
run 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The airmass will slowly warm as 
flow aloft becomes more southwest. Look for temperatures to be back 
above normal by Sunday and continue for much of next week. Southwest 
flow will push occasional patches of middle and high clouds across the 
area next week...and by Thanksgiving and upper low will have moved 
into the Desert Southwest and give US a slight chance of rain. 


&& 


Discussion... 
not much change in short term...though some changes possible in 
longer term forecast. Currently chilly airmass in place across the 
entire County Warning Area from yesterday's back door front. Highs today will run 
about 10-15 degrees below normal. In other news...upper frontal 
feature that moved out ahead of upper trough in the Pacific 
northwest is getting sheared out east to west across New Mexico with 
a small wave developing on it just off the northern Baja California coast. This 
small wave will turn the upper flow to the southwest and along with 
the higher clouds associated with it...will also scoop some higher 
clouds from tropical zone up over for Saturday and Sunday. This 
pattern will also have our temperatures back above normal by Sunday. 
Short wave ridge builds over the area Sunday in response to a 
deepening Pacific upper low...and corresponding northwest flow will 
allow a weak back door cold front to push in late Sunday night. 
Expect only slight cooling on Monday with this feature. 


Aforementioned short wave ridge slides to the east of US on Tuesday 
as upper low moves into central California. GFS now slightly changed 
from previous runs. Frontal boundary moves out well ahead of the low 
and over the area on Tuesday with some light quantitative precipitation forecast. Will hold at 
partly cloudy for now but next few shifts may want to insert probability of precipitation if 
needed. Upper low moves into the northern Great Basin but another 
upper low slides in right behind the first one...down to central 
California on Wednesday...over northern Arizona Wednesday night and 
then over northern New Mexico Thursday morning. This is further 
north from previous prognosticated tracks so chances of rain are not as 
good. Reduced probability of precipitation back into the slight chance category for 
Thanksgiving day. 


&& 


Aviation...valid 21/12z-22/12z... 
mostly VFR with occasional scattered/broken clouds fl180 and above. Local IFR ceiling f 
east slopes of Sacramento Mountains until around 15z. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
dry weather to continue. Cooler temperatures today behind 
yesterday's cold front will keep humidities in the 20 to 30 percent 
range. Temperatures will warm back to above normal by Sunday and 
continue for much of next week and humidities will be back down in a 
more normal 10 to 20 percent range. Upper low moving in on 
Thanksgiving will give the area a slight chance of showers. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
El Paso 55 30 63 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Sierra Blanca Texas 50 28 60 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Las Cruces 55 28 62 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Alamogordo 51 27 61 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Cloudcroft 40 20 47 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Truth or Consequences 53 26 60 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Silver City 48 27 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Deming 58 26 62 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Lordsburg 59 27 63 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Epz watches/warnings/advisories... 
nm...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


17 Hefner