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fxus65 klkn 202223 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
223 PM PST Thursday Nov 20 2008 


Synopsis...a series of weak cold fronts will move across northern 
Nevada starting tonight...with another one expected on Saturday. 
These cold fronts will bring cooler temperatures and breezy 
conditions to the region into the weekend. Dry conditions are 
expected to continue through next Tuesday before a Pacific low 
pressure system moves towards the Silver state by the middle of 
the week. 
&& 


Short term...tonight through Sunday...current visible satellite 
loop shows low level clouds moving into northwest Nevada ahead of a surface cold 
front. Models in agreement...showing the front pushing across 
northern Nevada while the upper level trough only clips northern Nevada as the 
jet maximum remains north of the Nevada border. Breezy conditions are 
expect across the north this evening as the front moves east. 
Gusts up to 45 miles per hour are possible on the Lee side of the higher 
mountain ranges with high res models showing some wave activity on 
the eastern side of the Ruby Mountains. Otherwise...only a few 
rain/snow showers are expected along the Oregon and Idaho border 
tonight behind the front as it moves into Utah. Increased min 
temperatures tonight a few degrees with some cloud cover expected across the 
north. 


High temperatures expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler for Friday and 
through the weekend...but will still be ~5 degrees above normal for 
this time of the year. Models show another weak cold front pushing 
across northern Nevada on Saturday bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler 
air. No precipitation expected with this system as well since the main 
upper level trough remains well north of Nevada and weakens as it 
pushes onshore. Kept high temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 50s through 
the weekend. However...with very dry air across the state and 
good radiational cooling expected...expect low temperatures to be 
seasonably cold and generally in the middle teens to low 20s. Would 
not be surprised if the normally colder higher valleys across northern 
Elko County/eastern White Pine County drop into the single digits early 
Saturday morning. 


Long term...Sunday night through Thanksgiving day. Weak high 
pressure will linger across northern and central Nevada Sunday night 
through Tuesday for continued dry and mild conditions. At this same 
time a trough nears the West Coast...with a closed low forming off 
the Southern California coast by Tuesday afternoon. 


Models have a difficult time handling the inland push of the trough 
and closed low during the middle to latter part of next week. GFS 
model splits the energy...taking some north of Nevada with the rest 
being kept well south of the County Warning Area. If this verifies northern and 
central Nevada will remain dry from Sunday on through Thanksgiving. 
The European model (ecmwf) model also splits the incoming energy...again with some 
energy staying north of Nevada...however the ec brings the closed 
low inland across extreme Southern California Wednesday and 
Thursday...suggesting rain showers across central Nevada Wednesday 
which will spread up into northern Nevada overnight and into 
Thanksgiving day. 


Climatology may still be the best forecast for days 6 and 7 across 
central Nevada...however across the north with both models keeping 
Humboldt and Elko counties dry...climatology may be too wet. Leaned 
the forecast more toward a blend of the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models...and 
away from a pure climatology solution. Still fairly low confidence 
in the forecast for the Holiday travel next week. For now the best 
guess would be dry most areas with just a slight chance of 
precipitation. Perhaps more importantly for travelers than whether 
or not precipitation falls...is knowing that at this time...both major 
models have the snow levels above valley floors Wednesday and 
Wednesday night...so any precipitation that may fall would be rain. 


&& 


Aviation...mostly clear skies across northern Nevada this afternoon 
will transition to mostly cloudy this evening and overnight as a 
weak disturbance moves through the Pacific northwest. Skies across 
central Nevada may become scattered tonight...but the heaviest cloud 
cover will remain to the north. Middle to high clouds will linger 
across mainly northern Nevada on Friday. VFR conditions are expected 
through Friday across all of northern and central Nevada. 


&& 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


95/96/96