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fxus65 klkn 211044 
afdlkn 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
244 am PST Friday Nov 21 2008 


Synopsis...dry and mild conditions are expected through Monday. 
However showers are in the forecast for most of next week. A 
Pacific low pressure system is expected to force its way into 
Southern California by Tuesday of next week. Moisture will be drawn 
northward into the Great Basin as this system moves inland. As 
this system exits...a second...colder low pressure system will 
replace it. && 


Short term...today through Sunday...mid-level cloudiness 
associated with weak short wave moving through at this time are enhancing 
on infrared across northern Humboldt and Elko counties. Winds are still 
kicking around 5-10 miles per hour from a northerly direction. 


Short term models are all in decent agreement through Sunday despite 
progressive nature of pattern next few days. Axis of shortwave 
currently brushing northern County Warning Area with clouds is centered close to 
Highway 93 in the eastern part of the state. Weak ridging will 
progress across the state today. Drier conditions are expected as 
temperatures cool a few degrees while remaining above normal. 
Another weak shortwave will brush the north on Saturday and is 
expected to not generate any precipitation for the area. Winds 
again will be breezy in the northern part of the County Warning Area. A stronger 
ridge will build into the region on Sunday to bring some warmer 
temperatures as flow aloft turns more southerly. Progressive 
pattern will begin to slow at this juncture as a strong upper low 
gets its act together off the California coast. Will probably 
adjust high temperatures upwards on Sunday. With good radiational 
cooling...expect low temperatures to be seasonably cold and generally in 
the middle teens to low 20s. Normally colder high valleys across northern 
Elko County/eastern White Pine County will likely drop into the single 
digits early Saturday morning. 


Long term...Sunday night through Thanksgiving day. GFS and the 
European model (ecmwf) are in a very loose agreement in the overall pattern though 
the extended period. They differ in respect to the development of 
a cutoff low of the coast of California and the timing of systems. 
GFS is the most progressive with the low digging off the coast by 
Monday afternoon. The European model (ecmwf) also has a trough digging off the 
coast...but holds off on cutting the low off until Wednesday. 


By Tuesday afternoon GFS has the semblance of a Tonopah low 
developing. If this does develop...it could cause wrap around 
precipitation over much of the area. The European model (ecmwf) also hints at this 
low...but later in the week. Have kept slight chance probability of precipitation 
in the forecast due to the uncertainty in the models. 
However...did increase the coverage of the slight chance across 
the County Warning Area for most of the extended after Tuesday evening. 
Also...models are indicating colder temperatures then before with the 
540dm thickness moving in on Wednesday aver most of northern Nevada. 


So for a basic summary of the extended...the pattern will be 
progressive in the beginning...only to slow down by middle week and 
become almost stationary by the weekend. With wrap around 
precipitation and cold temperatures...there is the possibility of 
wintry conditions for Holiday travel next week. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions are expected through the day and into 
the evening hours. 
&& 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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