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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
418 PM EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
cool and dry high pressure will dominate through Wednesday 
afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers 
to the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Otherwise... 
dry weather with along with pleasant temperatures are expected 
through the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
surface high pressure crests over the region...with mostly clear 
skies and light winds. Scattered cirrus clouds are expected to 
approach from the west late tonight...but this will have little 
impact on overnight low temperatures. Current dewpoints range from 
the upper 20s to middle 30s. Temepratures are expected to drop sharply 
after dark. Lows tonight will be fairly similar to last 
night...except 925mb boundary layer temperatures will be much warmer. This 
means there should be a large range in overnight lows from the 
valleys to the higher terrain locations. A freeze warning has been 
issued for Hampden County Massachusetts with frost advisories across 
northern Connecticut...northern Rhode Island and much of interior 
eastern Massachusetts. Please refer to the latest npwbox. 


The growing season has ended for Cheshire County New 
Hampshire...Hampshire and Franklin counties in Massachusetts. A 
widespread frost has already been verified across Hillsborough County 
New Hampshire...northern Worcester County Massachusetts. Thus not all 
counties are included in current freeze warnings or frost advisories 
where similar temperatures are expected again tonight. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/... 
Wednesday...high pressure will prevail across southern New 
England...but clouds will gradually increase and lower and thicken 
late in the day. Boundary layer temperatures around +11 to +12 celsius and 
mixing up to the 925mb level should support highs in the upper 60s to 
around 70 degrees away from the South Coast. 


Wednesday night...an upper level trough will quickly approach from 
the west. A h25 140kt jet...progressive upper level flow and weak 
isentropic lift...decent 850 mb 40 knots jet Colorado-located with the Theta-E 
ridge axis...should bring scattered showers across much of the 
region between 06z and 12z. A southwest flow ahead of the front will 
bring milder air to the region than previous nights. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/... 
Thursday... 
upper level shortwave and its associated warm advection should be 
exiting our region Thursday morning. Will continue some chance probability of precipitation 
in the morning for scattered rain showers...but it probably will be 
dry by the afternoon as the disturbance exits the coast. Skies will 
start off cloudy but should see some peeks of sun by middle afternoon 
as drier air works into the region on gusty west winds. Highs 
should reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s making for a nice 
afternoon. 


Thursday night... 
mainly clear skies as high pressure builds back into the region. 
Lows should range from the lower 40s across southwest New Hampshire/northwest 
Massachusetts...to the low to middle 50s on the coastal plain. Patchy ground fog 
may develop in the typically prone locations late. 


Friday through Sunday... 
high pressure aloft will provide for mainly clear skies and 
beautiful weather through the weekend. Highs should reach into the 
upper 60s to middle 70s on Friday with lots of sunshine. 


Things differ at the surface a bit Saturday and Sunday. The 
European model (ecmwf)/Canadian have a backdoor cold front moving through while the 
GFS/GFS ensembles/UKMET shows the continuation very mild weather. 
If the cooler solutions verify highs will be in the low to middle 
60s...if not highs will again be in the upper 60s to middle 70s. With 
the uncertainty we will blend the models for now and go with highs 
in the 60s...to around 70. No matter which solutions verify...the 
coolest afternoon temperatures are expected along the coast...with 
the warmest readings in the Connecticut River valley. 


Sunday night through Tuesday... 
a cold front looks to sweep through the region Sunday night and 
early Monday. Moisture looks very limited...but enough dynamics are 
present to go with 20 probability of precipitation Sunday night into the first part of 
Monday for a brief passing sprinkle/shower or two. Otherwise...dry 
weather and cool temperatures are expected. Its a long way off but 
highs should range from the upper 50s to middle 60s Monday and Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Tuesday through Sunday/... 
tonight...VFR. Local IFR conditions in fog patches across the 
interior valleys and bogs. 


Wednesday...VFR. 


Wednesday night...VFR from 00z to 06z. MVFR ceilings and visibilities 
developing 06z to 12z with scattered showers and fog patches ahead 
of an approaching trough. 


Outlook...Thursday through Sunday... 


Brief marginal MVFR conditions possible Thursday morning in 
scattered rain showers. Otherwise...generally VFR through the 
period with just a chance of a few hours of patchy early morning 
ground fog in the typically prone locations. 


&& 


Marine... 
tonight through Wednesday night...winds and seas are expected to 
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds expected to gradually 
shift from northwest to southwest Wednesday afternoon. 


Outlook...Thursday through Sunday... 


Thursday... 
gusty southwest winds of 20 to 25 knots should result in marginal 
small craft advisories across all our waters from late Thursday 
morning into the afternoon. In addition...3 to 6 foot seas should 
develop across our southern outer-waters. 


Friday through Sunday... 
it looks rather tranquil as high pressure builds over New England. 
Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. If the cooler 
European model (ecmwf)/Canadian models verify we may have brief marginal Small Craft Advisory wind 
gusts Friday night and Saturday behind a backdoor cold front...but 
even if this happens it should not last long. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am EDT Wednesday for ctz002>004. 
Massachusetts...frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am EDT Wednesday for maz005-013- 
017>019-023-026. 
Freeze warning from 1 am to 8 am EDT Wednesday for maz009-011. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am EDT Wednesday for riz001-003. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Frank 
near term...Strauss 
short term...Strauss 
long term...Frank 
aviation...Frank/Strauss 
marine...Frank/Strauss