539 
fxus61 kbox 071413 cca 
afdbox 


Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
1013 am EDT Tuesday Oct 7 2008 


Synopsis... 
cool and dry high pressure will dominate through midweek. A warming 
trend will begin late in the week and continue into the weekend. A 
weak cold front will move through on Thursday. High pressure will 
then build over New England for Friday and the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
little change to previous forecast except to modify hourly temperatures and 
dewpoints. Will await the latest 12z MOS guidance in consideration of 
tonights frost/freeze coverage. Growing season has ended for Cheshire 
County New Hampshire...Franklin and Hampshire counties in Massachusetts. 
Tonights low temperatures look to be fairly similar to last 
nights...but with a greater range in temperature from the high 
terrain to valley locations as 925 mb temperatures will be much warmer 
tonight. 


Previous disc... 
mostly clear skies will dominate the region and the patchy fog will 
burn off this morning. 925mb temperatures will climb to around 8 to 9c which 
will allow high temperatures in the low to middle 60s. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/... 
high pressure will continue to dominate through Wednesday. Clear 
skies and calm winds will again lead to chilly overnight 
temperatures. Frost advisories and freeze warnings will likely be 
necessary again overnight tonight for much of western Massachusetts 
and southwestern New Hampshire. Lows will be similar if not slightly cooler 
in these areas. Temperatures will be somewhat milder along the 
coast inwards toward the Worcester Hills. Wednesday will be another 
pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures getting into 
the middle to upper 60s. Towards the end of the day...a few high 
clouds could start to stream into the area ahead of an approaching 
shortwave. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Monday/... 
upper shortwave racing across the northern tier of states will push a 
cold front through the region Thursday. The shortwave is forecast to 
be supported by a 140 knot jet...so there will be appreciable energy 
although much of this will be along or north of the Canadian border. 
With the westerly flow moisture will be limited. With this in mind we 
will continue with low end chance probability of precipitation Thursday...exiting offshore 
Thursday night. 


For Friday through Sunday the GFS has come around to the consensus 
of surface high pressure centered over New England providing fair and 
dry weather. While the GFS is dry for US...it still generates a weak 
coastal low off the Carolinas. The other models hint in places at 
troffiness along the southeast coast. But will any of this work 
north. If so...there will be more clouds this weekend than the 
forecast currently indicates. We will be monitoring this. 


A weak front drops down in the northwest flow Monday bringing clouds. 
Once again moisture looks limited so we will go with slight chance 
probability of precipitation only in New Hampshire and northwest mass. 


&& 


Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
through 15z...mostly VFR conditions with a few exceptions where 
patchy fog will reduce conditions to MVFR or IFR. These locations 
will be mainly in the Connecticut River valley...though patchy fog 
could turn up elsewhere. 


Rest of today...VFR. 


Tonight...mainly VFR with a few locations dropping down to MVFR or 
IFR in patchy fog. 


Wednesday...VFR. 


Outlook...Wednesday night through Saturday... 


Generally VFR through the period. 


&& 


Marine... 
northwest winds around 15kts will continue through the day today as 
high pressure slowly moves into southern New England. Seas will 
gradually decrease through the day...falling below 5 feet middle 
morning. As high pressure moves over the waters...winds will 
decrease to around 10kts with seas continuing to decline. 


Outlook...Wednesday night through Saturday... 


Good mixing Thursday with 25 to 30 knots at 950 mb and 900 mb...well 
within the mixing zone. So Small Craft Advisory conditions in 
frequent wind gusts are quite possible especially in the nearshore 
waters. Winds should diminish with sunset. 


High pressure then builds over New England. Winds and seas should 
remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the weekend. A disturbance may 
develop off the Carolinas Friday-Saturday and could spread some 
clouds and sprinkles north...but not much confidence in this 
currently. 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
New Hampshire...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for anz254. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wtb/rlg 
near term...Strauss/rlg 
short term...rlg 
long term...wtb 
aviation...wtb/rlg 
marine...wtb/rlg