425 
fxus61 krlx 221607 
afdrlx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Charleston WV 
1104 am EST Sat Nov 22 2008 


Synopsis... 
high pressure in control for the weekend. Milder Sunday afternoon. 
A cold front crosses on Monday with mostly rain. Colder air Monday 
night through Wednesday with snow showers. 


&& 


Near term /until 7 PM this evening/... 
updating forecast to increase clouds earlier today based on current 
satellite. 


&& 


Short term /7 PM this evening through Tuesday night/... 
as mentioned in previous discussions...the best environment still 
appears to be here for a weekend day...that being Sunday. 


Still have the non diurnal temperature trace for late Sunday 
night...with readings rising a bit in the western lowland counties 
and mountain ridges during the predawn. 


Increased probability of precipitation into the 70 to 80 percent range for the precipitation 
associated with the front on Monday. Even though the precipitation 
may not reach mountains until midday...the evaporative cooling may 
cause some wet snow there. Thinking the threat of freezing rain is 
lowering. 


The westerly flow Monday night may be slower in developing the snow 
showers...especially for heights-crw-bkw on S. Difficult to pin down 
at this distance in time. 


For Tuesday and Tuesday night GFS and European model (ecmwf) still agreeing on the 
500 mb cutoff...with the surface low not deepening much...but 
lingering over New York state. European model (ecmwf) a bit further north compared 
to 00z GFS. 


Also continued the trend started early Friday...that is keeping probability of precipitation 
much higher than guidance in the upslope areas Tuesday and Tuesday 
night ... even most of the northern lowland counties...generally 
crw-bkw on north. 


Moisture appears to be deeper around 500 mb cutoff...but 850 
temperatures will not be as cold as the previous 2 upslope 
episodes. 850 temperatures were mostly minus 11 to minus 14c in 
those past cases...but expect predicting mostly minus 7 to minus 10 
this time around. 


Will continue the hazard for possible winter headlines...for 
accumulating snow showers...in the hazardous weather outlook for 
Monday night into Wednesday. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Friday/... 
as mentioned in the short term...continued the trend of keeping 
upslope snow showers in longer...but our County Warning Area could be situated again 
on the sharp SW to NE gradient in probability of precipitation on Wednesday. 


Even kept some probability of precipitation into Thanksgiving across portions of WV 


Lowered temperatures Wednesday into Thursday...mainly for elevations 
above 3000 feet. Forecast maximum temperatures for this period 
continue below mex guidance. 


&& 


Aviation /16z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
VFR through the period. Leftover northern mountain clouds will 
linger through the morning. After these dissipate...mid/hi clouds 
will increase in coverage later this morning in advance of a 
midlevel shortwave. Clouds will thicken by sunset...but low level 
moisture is lacking...with ceilings generally at or above 8000 feet...so no 
precipitation is forecast. Shortwave exits region by 12z...and 
clouds should mostly clear by that time. 


Aviation outlook /beyond 12z Sunday/... 
cold front Monday...followed by northwest flow and upslope 
precipitation Monday night into Tuesday...could lead to IFR 
conditions especially for the mountain terminals. 


&& 


Rlx watches/warnings/advisories... 
WV...none. 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
Virginia...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...ktb/cl 
near term...rpy 
short term...ktb 
long term...ktb 
aviation...cl