947 
fxpq60 pgum 220828 
afdpq 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service tiyan GU 
628 PM chst Sat Nov 22 2008 


Synopsis... 
moderate trade winds and isolated showers are present across the 
marianas waters. An upper low centered well east of Saipan near 
17n152e is having little effect on marianas weather. 


&& 


Discussion... 
models show no departure from earlier runs...and have made no 
changes from the previous forecast package. GFS hints at an 
increase in showers around Wed-Thu...but too early to run with it 
and have left as mostly cloudy and isolated. 


&& 


Marine and surf... 
north-northwest swell is expected to persist a few days...keeping 
the rip risk moderate on respective exposures. 


&& 


Eastern micronesia... 
a moderate to strong trade-wind surge will guarantee relatively 
dry but breezy conditions for both Pohnpei and Kosrae through 
midweek. Majuro will be under the same synoptic pattern through 
Sunday...then weaker easterly trades are scheduled to take over. 
Finally...a trade-wind disturbance visible on Quikscat satellite 
derived wind data near 170w might pay a visit around midweek. 


&& 


Western micronesia... 
as the low-level trough departs to the west of Chuuk coastal 
waters...drier and stronger trades along with subsidence aloft 
will provide quiet weather for the state through midweek. 


The circulation southwest of Koror is slowly drifting westward 
toward the Philippines...therefore weather over Koror is showing 
signs of improvement this evening. This trend is expected to 
continue through Monday afternoon as drier northeast trades 
penetrate into the region. The low-level trough currently exiting 
Chuuk will probably bring some wet weather to Koror toward 
midweek. Yap is already under the influence of the drier trades 
and will remain so through midweek as the trough near Koror will be 
too far south for any impacts. 


&& 


Gum watches/warnings/advisories... 
GU...none. 
Marianas waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Ziobro/chan