marine weather discussion

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

230 PM EST Fri Nov 20 2009

Marine weather discussion for Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea and

southwest north Atlc S of 31n W of 55w

Gulf of Mexico...

as predicted by the computer models...a low pres is developing

over the NW portion of the Gulf since this morning. A qscat pass

from around 1140 UTC showed a couple of uncontaminated wind

barbs with 35 kt probably associated with the strong shower and

tstm activity in that area. The forecast is showing winds in the

20 to 30 kt range...with winds and seas higher near the tstms.

The low is forecast to move NE towards se Louisiana Sat

morning... and inland southern Alabama Sat night into early Sun

morning. The associated cold front will extend from 28n95w to

26n97w this afternoon...then will reach from near Mobile Alabama

to Bay of Campeche Sat night and from N Florida to Eastern Bay

of Campeche by Sun morning then weaken over the far se waters

late sun into Mon. Weak high pres will then settle in over the N

central Gulf by late Mon. As the low pres moves inland...winds

and seas will gradually diminish across the Gulf waters. Winds

are expected to pick up again on Tue as strong high builds in

from the Southern Plains. Next cold front will move off the

Texas coast Tue and extend from se Louisiana to near Tampico

Mexico Wed followed by fresh to strong winds.

Caribbean Sea and the N tropical Atlc W of 55w...

trade winds have increased to 2o to 25 kt near the coast of

Colombia. Sfc data and a qscat pass from this morning confirmed

these wind speeds. This pattern is expected to persist during

the forecast period with some increase in area coverage Mon and

Tue as high pres N of area strengths.

SW N Atlc S of 31n W of 65w...

a 1014 mb sfc low near is near 31n75w with a trough extending

from low to the central Bahamas. A stationary front is over the

far NE portion followed by fresh to strong E winds. The trough

will reach from 31n71w to the central Bahamas Sat morning while

the stationary front will move out of area as a warm front. High

pres will build se across the area through sun then shift to the

far eastern portion of the area Mon through Tue. The next cold

front...associated with the developing low over the Gulf of

Mexico...will reach the far NW portion early Mon then extend

from 31n76w to near Lake Okeechobee Florida early Tue. NW to N

winds and seas up to 5 ft will follow the front. Winds are

expected to increase to 20 kt S of 21n late Mon into Tue as pres

gradient strengths across the area due to the presence of a 1038

mb high over the W Atlc near Nova Scotia on Mon moving toward

the N-central Atlc and slightly weakening Tue.

Warnings...

Atlc...

.None.

Caribbean...

.None.

Gulf of Mexico...

.None.

$$

Forecaster gr