marine weather discussion

NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL

330 am EST Thu Mar 18 2010

Marine weather discussion for Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea and

southwest north Atlc S of 31n W of 55w

Gulf of Mexico...

a broad ridge extending from S TX to the FL straits will

gradually become orientated N to S along 94w today with the

parent surface high pres forming over the NW waters. This high

will shift E along 29-30n Fri to a psn off Carolina coasts at

sunrise Sat with the associated ridge dissecting the Gulf from

NE to SW. Se return flow has already begun over the NW waters as

the surface high is developing...but expect variable winds over

the NW today then becoming se and increasing to 15 kt tonight

and 15 to 20 kt Fri. The se return flow will spread E covering

all waters Fri night. The next cold front moves off the TX coast

around sunrise Sat...a full 12 hours earlier than guidance

suggested yesterday. This front will race se of the FL straits

Sun night. Guidance now longer suggesting the large area of nly

gales...but strong caa and fast moving front...so will continue

minimal gale conditions for the NW and SW zones beginning early

Sat night into Sun morning. Pattern seems progressive again as

Post frontal high pres will race E across the northern coastal

plains setting up se NW early Mon and all waters by midday Tue.

Tropical Atlc and Caribbean Sea...

a frontal trough extends from 21n55w across the N leewards to

15n72w and is expected to move a little further S over Atlc

waters E of the leewards today with remnants meandering through

Fri. A broad inverted trough over the E Caribbean along 72w with

continue through early sun then fill as Ely trades resume. Nly

flow continues will dominate the Caribbean W of 75w through

Fri...then Ely trades resume till a cold front arrives Yucatan

Channel around sunset sun.

SW N Atlc W of 55w...

low pres has formed off the NE FL coast with a series of troughs

rotating around the low. One trough extending SW across FL attm

is likely to become the predominate feature as cold air wraps se

across FL modifying this trough into a cold front with a

significant wind shift. This front should reach psn 31n74w to

20n74w tonight and from Bermuda to se Bahamas Fri then stall

from 31n55w to 24n65w to Hispaniola Sat...with remnants drifting

W on sun. Note that secondary surges will follow this front.

Another cold front moves off GA coast late sun...reaching from

31n70w to central Bahamas Mon.

Warnings...

Atlc...

.None.

Caribbean...

.None.

Gulf of Mexico...

.Gmz080 and gmz082...Gale conditions expected early Sat night

into early sun.

For additional information please visit

http://www.Hurricanes.Gov/marine

$$

forecaster Nelson